Did UBS raise its target price by nearly 3x directly—can Micron still be chased in this round?

The news yesterday that Micron’s market cap broke 1 trillion has the entire crypto community asking questions. I dug through the research reports carefully: UBS analysts raised the target price from $535 to $1,625, corresponding to a market cap of $1.8 trillion. How outrageous is that? It’s more than double the $751 closing price from last Friday.

But the core logic isn’t the HBM high-bandwidth memory that everyone thinks about—it’s the first time in the storage chip industry that there have been long-term supply agreements with fixed pricing. The analyst’s exact words were: “The AI revolution has completely reshaped the market’s valuation logic for Micron.” In particular, in the past the memory-chip giants depended on luck—prices swung massively with supply and demand—whereas now long-term supply agreements lock in both pricing and demand. For example, the agreements Micron reached with major customers such as NVIDIA already have orders scheduled through 2029. This means the company can know in advance how much money it will be able to make in the coming years, and the market no longer treats it purely as a cyclical stock.

Another especially notable point is that Micron’s weighting in the S&P 500 is only 1.5%, and in the Nasdaq it’s only 2%, yet yesterday, this single stock directly pulled both major indices to record highs. This is no longer just earnings-driven—it’s a repricing of the entire storage sector. After the news was released, storage ETFs surged more than 14% in a single day, and since they were listed in early April, they have already doubled.

Of course, risks also can’t be ignored. Although it has risen 800% over the past year, Micron’s forward P/E multiple is currently only 15, which is much cheaper than both Broadcom and NVIDIA. A more steady approach is not to go all-in at once, but to enter in batches. Trump even publicly praised Micron at a rally last weekend: “Oh my God, Micron is amazing.” I can only say: before this super narrative about AI infrastructure has played out, perhaps it’s not necessary to go against the trend.

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