Recently, friends have been asking me what time the US CPI is announced in Taiwan time. So today, I will systematically explain this issue and also clarify the entire CPI system.

First, the key point: the US CPI is usually announced on the first business day of each month or the closest business day, with the specific time varying due to daylight saving time. During standard time, it is at 21:30 Taiwan time; during daylight saving time, it is at 20:30. This timing is crucial because CPI data often triggers sharp market volatility, especially at the moment the US CPI year-over-year growth rate is released, when major asset prices can experience rapid adjustments.

Speaking of which, many people are often confused about the concepts of CPI, core CPI, and PCE. Simply put, CPI includes all goods and services and is affected by fluctuations in food and energy prices, while core CPI excludes these volatile items. As for PCE, although its release time is slightly later than CPI, it uses chain-weighted averages, which better reflect consumer substitution effects. That’s also why the Federal Reserve pays more attention to PCE data.

I’ve noticed that many investors don’t fully understand the composition of CPI. Housing-related expenses account for the largest share, reaching 30-40%, followed by food and beverages at 13-15%. So, these two areas are key to analyzing CPI trends. Energy accounts for 6-8%, healthcare costs for 7-9%, and other items make up a smaller proportion.

Looking back over the past thirty years, the US has experienced four major economic cycles. The savings and loan crisis in the 1990s, the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic shock in 2020—all saw significant declines in CPI. Interestingly, in 2020, CPI dropped rapidly due to the pandemic, but with large-scale stimulus from the Fed, CPI quickly rose again to a peak in June 2022. This shows that global logistics conditions have a substantial impact on US inflation.

Regarding forecasts for 2024, I see two main variables. One is the US presidential election—regardless of which party takes power, protectionist policies may be adopted, which could push prices higher. The other is the Fed’s pace of interest rate cuts. Based on market expectations, the Fed might cut rates by 6 basis points in 2024. The International Monetary Fund projects US growth at around 2.1% this year, with global inflation dropping to 5.8%. Given these factors, I believe that US CPI will find it difficult to continue declining rapidly in the first half of the year; it may rebound in the second quarter and only start to fall back in the second half.

In summary, although the announcement time of US CPI in Taiwan is just a specific moment, the underlying market logic is far more complex than it appears. Investors need to pay attention to both the CPI year-over-year rate and the PCE year-over-year rate to better grasp market trends.