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I just noticed that there are relatively few people who truly understand how useful standard deviation is in actual trading. Through conversations with many traders, I found that many know its name but don't know how to apply it.
It is a somewhat old indicator. In fact, standard deviation was developed in 1894 by Karl Pearson, an English mathematician. However, it has gained popularity in trading circles because it helps measure market volatility effectively.
Simply put, standard deviation is a measure of how much the price deviates from the average. When the SD is high, it indicates that prices are swinging wildly, meaning high volatility. When the SD is low, it suggests that prices are relatively stable, indicating low volatility.
For traders, this is very useful because it helps us understand the true level of risk. If you know how volatile a currency pair is, you can set your stop-loss more reasonably. For example, if volatility is high, the stop-loss should be placed farther from the current price.
Another advantage is that standard deviation helps us identify better entry and exit points. When the price continuously touches the upper SD line, it may indicate that the market is overbought and could reverse downward. Similarly, if the price repeatedly touches the lower line, it may signal overselling and a potential reversal upward.
Calculating standard deviation isn't as complicated as it seems. It involves gathering closing prices over a period (usually 14 days), finding the average, then measuring how much each price deviates from that average, squaring those deviations, summing them up, dividing by the number of periods, and finally taking the square root.
In practical use, standard deviation is often combined with Bollinger Bands, which are built from SD. Both tools help us visualize market volatility more clearly.
Most common strategies involve two approaches. The first is waiting for the price to be in a narrow range (low volatility) and then break out. When the price breaks through, it tends to continue in that direction. The second is identifying trend reversals early by observing if the price approaches the upper or lower SD bands.
The key point to remember is that standard deviation is not a standalone indicator. It should be used together with other analysis tools and by keeping an eye on global news that can impact the market, as sometimes markets can move unexpectedly due to external factors.
If you're a beginner and want to try using standard deviation, consider opening a demo account with virtual funds of $50,000 to test your strategies without risk. Once you feel confident, you can switch to live trading.