I just saw the news that Trump has postponed the plan to attack Iran, so the market can breathe a sigh of relief. But honestly, this kind of ceasefire is only a temporary pause—it isn’t the end of the story.

The clearest thing is that crude oil prices have fallen due to concerns about supply-chain disruptions. However, the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500, is still just swinging in a narrow range of 7,390-7,410 points—there hasn’t been the strong recovery that people expected. The Dow Jones is at 49,300-49,700 points, and Nasdaq is around 29,000 points. Everything is only slightly positive so far. Why isn’t it fully bouncing back? Because the U.S. 10-year bond yield is still stubbornly high at 4.6%. This is the pressure keeping investors from daring to buy aggressively.

As for gold and crypto: gold has fallen to $4,550 as investors rotate into riskier assets. But don’t get too excited yet. Gold remains a safe option in the long term. If this ceasefire flares up again, gold will surge immediately. Bitcoin is trading around $76,000-$78,000, with volatility still extremely high. MicroStrategy continues to buy more BTC, but don’t assume that “good news” alone will make prices jump—selling pressure from bond yields is still too heavy.

For Thailand’s market today, the SET index is moving sideways in a range of 1,510-1,525 points. Concerns about U.S. bond yields and inflation are still weighing on sentiment. Even though Q1 GDP is better than expected, the market views it as a peak point. The key issue is that today the cabinet will consider the Thai Helps Thai Plus measures. If they come out with details that are good, it could genuinely help support the economy.

Regarding the Emergency Decree on the Loan, the Constitutional Court accepted the petition but did not order a suspension. The government can continue moving forward, and there is no negative reaction in the market.

The strategy now shouldn’t be to buy everything. Pick individual stocks with standout Q2 results; the overall outlook for the second half is strong, and they are less affected by international conflict—such as groups focused on the domestic market or exports that don’t rely heavily on oil. During this ceasefire period, choose stocks carefully. Don’t rush into buying just because of the trend—otherwise you’ll definitely get burned.