Gold just went through a crazy year – reaching a record high of $2,785 per ounce in 2024. This is no coincidence. I’ve noticed that whenever the world falls into instability (Middle East wars, geopolitical tensions), gold starts to run. Additionally, signals of the Fed cutting interest rates soon, a weakening USD – all these factors create a strong upward wave for this precious metal.

Now the question is: where will gold prices go in the next two years? Experts give different numbers. JP Morgan forecasts gold will hit $2,300 per ounce in 2025. Bloomberg suggests prices will fluctuate between $1,709 and $2,727. There’s even a bolder prediction that gold could surpass $27,000 in 2026 – that sounds overly optimistic, but not entirely impossible if global conditions continue to worsen.

I want to emphasize one point: predicting gold prices over the next two years isn’t just based on numbers on paper. You need to monitor fundamental factors. Is the USD strong or weak? How much will the Fed cut? How fast are central banks (especially China, India) buying gold? Is public debt increasing or decreasing? All these things directly influence the price.

Looking at the past five years (2019-2024), you’ll see gold tends to rise sharply during economic instability. In 2020, it increased 25% due to COVID; in 2021, it dropped 8% as the Fed tightened; in 2022, it hit a low of $1,618 when interest rates rose, but from 2023 onward, it started climbing again. This pattern shows: when interest rates are high, gold is weak; when rates are low or about to fall, gold is strong.

For analysis methods, I usually use MACD and RSI to identify entry points. MACD helps catch trends, RSI helps determine when the market is overbought or oversold. The COT report is also very useful – it shows where large money flows are heading. When traders are risk-averse (Commercial Hedgers) accumulating gold, that’s often a good sign.

But don’t rely solely on technicals. Keep an eye on news about monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, oil prices, inflation – all are related. When public debt rises rapidly, central banks tend to increase gold reserves to protect value, which pushes prices up.

Regarding investment strategies: if you believe gold will rise over the next two years, now might be a good time to start. For long-term investors, physical gold is a safe choice. If you want to capitalize on short-term volatility, you can use CFDs or futures contracts, but always remember to use stop-losses to protect your capital. Never invest all your funds in one position – allocate 10%, 20%, 30% depending on how clear the trend is.

Personally, I see that in the next two years, gold will continue to be a safe haven asset. Any correction could be an opportunity to buy. If the Fed really begins a rate-cutting cycle as expected, gold will have reason to keep rising. Of course, nothing is 100% certain – markets always have surprises. But given the current factors, the outlook for gold over the next two years is generally quite positive.