Practical Strategy — How to Bet on Bitcoin's End-of-Month Price on Polymarket and Improve Your Win Rate

In this final article, I want to share a practical strategy for predicting Bitcoin's end-of-month price on Polymarket from a trader's perspective. Don’t just look at the analysis conclusions; learn how to use position management and informational advantages to increase your chances of winning. The Gate Square activity is not only about posting to earn tokens but also an opportunity to enhance your prediction skills.

Step 1: Choose the right options. Polymarket usually offers multiple ranges. You need to select 1-2 of the most likely ranges based on your judgment. Based on my analysis in the previous 9 articles, the most probable closing range is $74k–$76k (about 45% probability), followed by $72k–$74k (about 30% probability). I personally would allocate 60% of my funds to the $74K–$76K range, 30% to the $72K–$74K range, and keep 10% as cash.

Step 2: Enter in batches rather than all at once. There are 4 days until the end of the month, and prices will fluctuate. You can start with half a position; if BTC continues to fall near $74,500 with no signs of rebound, add to the $72K–$74K position; if BTC rebounds above $76,500, then add to the $74K–$76K or $76K–$78K positions. Dynamic adjustment is more flexible than sticking to a single option.

Step 3: Pay attention to key timings and events. Check ETF net inflow data every morning (released around 6 a.m. Beijing time). If net inflow is positive for two consecutive days, it indicates institutions are starting to buy the dip, and you can consider increasing rebound options. Also, watch the US stock market opening time (around 9:30 p.m. Beijing time); Bitcoin often follows the Nasdaq’s movements. If the Nasdaq rebounds, Bitcoin may rally as well.

Step 4: Set profit-taking and stop-loss expectations. Shares on Polymarket can be sold before expiration. If you are already profitable, consider closing early to lock in gains. For example, if you bought the $74K–$76K option and BTC rises to $76,500, the share price might already be high; selling now could be more profitable than holding until expiration. Conversely, if adverse news appears, cut losses promptly.

Step 5: Share your trading screenshots. To participate in the Gate Square activity and win a $5 token, remember to include a screenshot of your Polymarket trade or event card when posting, along with your analysis logic (you can quote some points from this article). High-quality users are characterized by: deep analysis + unique perspective + engagement. Try to reply to comments to increase interaction.

Final reminder: Market prediction involves risks. Only use funds you can afford to lose. Don’t bet on low-probability options (like <70K or >80K) just for high odds, unless you’re just playing for fun. Rational analysis is key to stable profits in the long run. Wishing everyone success in their end-of-month predictions!

My final forecast: Bitcoin’s closing price on May 31 will be around $74,500, in the $74K–$76K range. Feel free to share screenshots as proof. See you this weekend. #Polymarket每日热点