Gold’s recent price action has indeed been a bit worrying. Last week, gold quickly broke below the $4,550 and $4,500 levels, dipping to a low of $4,464—its lowest point since the end of March. I noticed that over the past six trading days, five were days of decline, and it feels like the rebound trend that began around March may be nearing its end.

The underlying logic is actually not complicated. Tensions between the US and Iran have been heating up, energy prices have been pushed higher, and US Treasury yields have surged to a 19-year high—factors that are all weighing on gold. In particular, real interest rates are rising rapidly, which is an unmistakably bearish signal for gold. Add to that the intensifying rate-hike expectations: the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase this year is close to 60%, and the European Central Bank may also follow in June—so the short-term downward pressure on gold has not been fully released yet.

From a technical standpoint, the key line for gold is $4,500. If the rebound is capped here, subsequent moves could test $4,200 and even $4,000. To truly turn the situation around, gold first needs to hold steady above $4,900. As of now, gold’s trend still looks relatively fragile, so investors should stay alert to the risk of further downside.