Recently observing this round of gold market trends, the more I look, the more interesting it becomes. On the surface, it’s driven by rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, but I believe the real story behind it is that the global credit system is quietly cracking.

Let me start with an interesting phenomenon. Before 2022, everyone talked about gold in relation to real interest rates and the US dollar; the logic was simple. But starting in 2022, especially after the event of foreign exchange reserves being frozen, the pricing logic of gold changed. Central banks began to buy gold aggressively, geopolitical tensions escalated, and countries’ tariff policies engaged in mutual game-playing. These factors started to dominate gold prices. In other words, gold is no longer just a tool to hedge against inflation but the ultimate asset to hedge systemic risks.

Data supports this judgment. According to the World Gold Council, in 2025, global central banks’ net gold purchases will exceed 1,200 tons, marking the fourth consecutive year surpassing the thousand-ton mark. More importantly, 76% of central banks believe they will increase their gold holdings over the next five years, while also expecting US dollar reserves to decline. This is not short-term speculation; it’s a structural long-term shift.

Regarding the future ten years of gold’s trend, I notice several forces acting simultaneously. On one hand, the US fiscal deficit continues to expand, debt issues frequently spark controversy, and de-dollarization trends are obvious, with funds shifting from dollar assets to hard assets. On the other hand, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global economic slowdown, and stock markets already at historic highs are prompting investors to seek safe havens. Plus, geopolitical tensions remain tense. These factors stack together, supporting a solid bottom for gold.

However, to be clear, gold’s upward momentum has never been a straight line. Earlier this year, due to a rebound in real interest rates and crisis easing, gold prices experienced a sharp 18% correction, with volatility being quite intense. In the short term, US economic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and geopolitical events can trigger impulsive swings. I see many people blindly chasing highs amid this volatility, ending up with significant losses.

What do institutions think? Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, JPMorgan Chase expects $6,300 in Q4, and Citibank’s average price forecast for the second half is $5,800. In optimistic scenarios, some institutions predict gold could reach $6,000 to $6,500, and in extreme cases even $7,200. But these forecasts carry high uncertainty, depending on economic growth, policy directions, and geopolitical developments.

For retail investors, my view is to first clarify your positioning. If you are a short-term trader, market fluctuations around US data releases are obvious; technical analysis can be useful, but strict stop-losses are essential. If you are a beginner, don’t blindly follow the trend—start with small amounts to test the waters, learn to read economic calendars, and understand data release timings. If you want to hold long-term, gold is indeed a tool for diversification, but be prepared for a drawdown of over 20%. The average annual volatility of gold is 19.4%, not less than stocks, and it can double in value or halve.

Experienced investors might consider a combination of long and short strategies: hold core positions in gold for its potential appreciation over the next decade, while using volatility for short-term trading. But this requires strong risk management skills.

Regarding trading tools, physical gold has high transaction costs—5% to 20% fees can eat into profits significantly. Gold ETFs or derivatives like XAU/USD have better liquidity and are more suitable for swing trading.

My core point is this: the central bank gold-buying trend has not truly stopped since it exploded in 2022. This indicates a long-term skepticism toward the US dollar system. Persistent inflation, debt pressures, and geopolitical tensions remain—they won’t disappear with a few policy adjustments. Therefore, the gold price bottom keeps rising, with limited downside in a bear market and strong continuation in a bull market. But the key is to have a systematic way to monitor these changes, not just follow news blindly. The opportunity for gold over the next decade is there, but only if you understand the underlying logic, not if you get scared off by short-term fluctuations.