Recently, I reviewed the US CPI data performance in 2024 and found that market attention to the CPI release timing was actually extremely high at that time. I recall that around the first business day of each month, investors were waiting to see this number because it would directly influence asset price fluctuations.

The analytical framework back then was quite interesting. The US CPI release time is usually at the beginning of each month, around 8:30 to 9:30 PM Taiwan time, depending on daylight saving time. But many people didn't really understand the differences between CPI, core CPI, and PCE. Simply put, CPI includes food and energy, while core CPI excludes these volatile items. PCE uses a different weighting method, which better reflects substitution effects, so the Federal Reserve actually pays more attention to PCE.

Looking at the composition of CPI reveals the key points—housing accounts for the highest proportion (30-40%), followed by food and beverages (13-15%), these two categories are the main drivers of inflation. At that time, some predicted a 6 basis point cut in 2024, indicating the market believed inflation would decline throughout the year, but whether that was actually the case is open to interpretation.

What left the deepest impression was the analysis of logistics. During the Red Sea crisis, freight rates on the Eurasian route doubled, directly increasing import costs. Looking back at history, since the 1990s, the US has experienced four major booms and busts, with each economic crisis corresponding to a decline in CPI. When the pandemic broke out in 2020, CPI dropped rapidly, then surged again due to Fed stimulus measures, which shows that global logistics conditions really have a significant impact on inflation.

The forecast at that time was that CPI in the first half of 2024 might not continue to decline rapidly, due to low-base effects and declining crude oil inventories benefiting oil prices. Considering the US presidential election and geopolitical conflicts, the judgment was that CPI would bottom out in Q1, rebound in Q2, and then decline in the second half. The timing of CPI releases was very important for traders because each data release could trigger significant volatility.

Looking back now, the analysis logic regarding CPI release timing and trends still has some reference value. The key is to understand the underlying economic fundamentals—US economic growth, global logistics, commodity prices—these factors are the true drivers influencing CPI.