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A few years ago, 2022 was the year everything changed in terms of monetary policy. Central banks started raising interest rates aggressively, something we hadn't seen in decades. The reason was simple: inflation had skyrocketed. And this is where a concept that many ignore comes into play but directly affects your wallet: understanding what a deflator is and how fiscal deflation works.
Inflation erodes purchasing power. If your salary increases by 5% but inflation is at 8%, you technically earned less. This is where governments implement measures to protect taxpayers. One of the most important is what is known as deflating the IRPF.
But before talking about taxes, you need to understand the basic concept. A deflator is essentially a tool that adjusts nominal values to eliminate inflation noise. Think of it like this: if a company produced $10 million worth of goods last year and $12 million this year, it looks like a 20% growth. But if prices increased by 10%, the deflator shows that the real growth was only 10%. This adjustment is what economists call deflation.
In investing, this matters because you need to know if you're truly making money or just seeing numbers inflated by inflation. Real GDP versus nominal GDP is the classic example: one accounts for inflation, the other does not.
Now, applied to taxes. When the government deflates the IRPF, it is basically adjusting the tax brackets so that inflation doesn't make you pay more taxes on income you didn't actually earn in real terms. If your salary increases by 3% but inflation is 6%, you shouldn't be taxed as if you earned more. In the United States, France, and Nordic countries, they do this annually. In Germany, every two years. In Spain, at the national level, it hasn't been done since 2008, although some autonomous communities have implemented it.
Proponents say it's fair: it prevents inflation from hitting you twice. Critics argue it reduces government revenue and mainly benefits higher earners (due to the progressive nature of the tax).
Regarding investment in inflationary scenarios, if IRPF is deflated, investors would have more money available. That could change market behavior. Historically, commodities like gold perform well during inflation. Stocks suffer when interest rates rise, but some companies (energy, basic services) can thrive. Forex is volatile but offers opportunities if you understand currency movements.
The important thing is that you understand how the deflator works in your strategy. It's not just economic theory; it's real money in your account.