In the last few days of May, why am I actually afraid to short BTC now?

To be honest.
Recently, BTC has been weak.
After dropping below $76k, market sentiment has clearly cooled down.
Many people have already started shorting June early.
But the problem lies here.
—When everyone starts to short, I actually become a bit hesitant to short.
Because the crypto world is never about playing by the rules.
Its favorite thing is to go against market sentiment.
After looking at data from Polymarket recently, my biggest feeling is:
The truly big funds are actually not that pessimistic.
Although everyone is afraid to aggressively bet above $80k.
They are not concentrated on betting "crash."
More funds still believe:
BTC will stay in the $76k–$78k range by the end of the month.
Why?
Because there hasn't been a real large-scale panic in the market yet.
ETFs haven't collapsed;
Long-term on-chain holdings haven't loosened;
Institutions haven't clearly retreated.
This indicates:
It's more like a high-level consolidation now, not a trend reversal.
Of course.
The probability of continued short-term volatility remains high.
Because the market currently lacks new emotional catalysts.
AI concepts are attracting money;
The Federal Reserve's stance is wavering;
Altcoins are once again aggressively grabbing attention.
BTC now feels like a "traffic veteran star."
Everyone knows it.
But its popularity is starting to disperse.
So my most straightforward conclusion right now is:
At the end of May, BTC is unlikely to close extremely.
It’s more likely to continue oscillating between $76k and $78k.
Neither giving the bears a wild celebration;
Nor giving the bulls a climax.
Because the biggest fun in the market is making most people uncomfortable.
#Polymarket每日热点