Last night, revisiting options made me a bit scared: I almost got tempted to go back to being a buyer. I was thinking, “Rate-cut expectations are here, and risk assets are about to move.” But then I looked at the chart—the US dollar index was swinging along with everything else too, rising and falling together, in that kind of awkward environment. The person who actually suffers most is time. In plain terms, every day the buyer wakes up and silently has money deducted by theta (that small slice of time value). If the market doesn’t move immediately, the losses begin. The seller looks steady, but they’re actually selling the tail. Usually, they’re just sipping tea and it’s fine—until a pin suddenly pricks them, and it pierces right through.

Now I care more about, “Am I betting on direction, or on time?” If I get the direction wrong, I can still hold on. If I get the timing wrong, I can only watch it go to zero… In any case, I’ll pull my hand back first. I’d rather make a little less than send myself to be fuel for time.