Recently, I noticed a pretty interesting phenomenon: many people have started paying attention to the Turkish lira as a currency. Honestly, the lira is definitely worth taking a look at, because its volatility characteristics are relatively obvious in the foreign exchange market.

Let’s first briefly talk about the lira’s background. The Turkish lira is Turkey’s legal tender, with the code TRY, but this currency has a particular feature—it has been in a depreciation channel for a long time. Looking back at history, in 2001, the lira to the U.S. dollar exchange rate once fell to 1.65 million to 1. What does that indicate? It shows how fragile Turkey’s currency system used to be. Later, Turkey carried out major reforms in 2005 and introduced a new lira, after which it gradually stabilized.

So why is the lira still continuing to depreciate up to now? The core reason is basically two words: lack of trust. For a long time, the Turkish central bank has implemented unconventional policies. Even when prices are surging, it still cuts interest rates. The market has completely lost confidence in the central bank’s independence. On top of that, inflation has remained stubbornly high. In March 2026, the year-over-year inflation rate dropped to 30.87%, but it is still astonishingly high—far higher than most economies around the world.

This creates a vicious cycle: lira depreciation → higher import costs → higher prices → the market trusts the lira even less → funds accelerate their outflow → the lira continues to depreciate. Moreover, Turkey’s economic structure itself has problems. It is highly dependent on imports—energy and raw materials have to be paid for in U.S. dollars—which further intensifies the pressure for lira depreciation. In addition, recent geopolitical risks are also fanning the flames, making foreign investors more cautious about Turkish assets.

Let’s look at recent exchange rate trends. The U.S. dollar to lira (USD/TRY) has moved from around 43 at the beginning of the year to about 44.85, and in April it even refreshed a historical low. The Taiwan dollar to lira (TWD/TRY) is currently fluctuating between 1.42 and 1.43. The euro to lira (EUR/TRY) is between 52.7 and 53.0. In simple terms, the lira has depreciated recently by roughly 4.3% to 4.5%.

What will happen in the future? To be honest, in the short term, the lira is still facing depreciation pressure. Although the Turkish central bank maintains a high policy rate of 37%, which looks attractive, after deducting inflation, the real return is often negative. Analysts generally predict that throughout 2026 the lira could depreciate another 8% to 15%, and some are even more pessimistic. In the short term, USD/TRY could keep moving back and forth between 44.8 and 46.5, and the central bank’s interest rate meeting on April 22 is a key time point.

Is the lira still worth investing in now? My view is that it can be, but only if you know what you’re doing. For conservative long-term investors, the lira is not suitable. Over the past year, the lira has already depreciated by about 19%, and the long-term trend is “slow depreciation”—it’s simply too difficult to profit from appreciation. But if you’re a short-term trader, the lira’s high volatility could actually become an opportunity.

There are mainly three ways to invest in the lira. The first is exchanging currency through banks, but most banks in Taiwan do not offer lira buying and selling, with high thresholds and poor liquidity. The second is futures, but USD/TRY futures have low trading volume, so it’s generally difficult for retail investors to participate. The third is a contract for difference (CFD), which is currently the most practical option. The advantage of CFD is a low deposit requirement; usually you can open an account with less than 100 U.S. dollars. You can go long or short, and leverage is relatively high, making it suitable for traders who want to capture lira volatility.

If you really want to invest in the lira, my advice is: first, treat it only as a short-term target—don’t think about holding it long term waiting for appreciation. Second, build your position in batches to diversify risk—don’t go all-in. Third, closely monitor central bank policy, inflation data, and geopolitical risks, because all of these will affect the lira’s trajectory. Finally, it’s worth reminding you that the Turkish central bank has already consumed tens of billions of dollars of foreign exchange reserves to support the lira. If intervention causes reserves to fall too low, the central bank may be forced to give up supporting it, and then the lira could experience a sudden, sharp depreciation.

Overall, the lira is a currency with clear trend-changing factors, suitable for investors who have trading experience and can withstand high volatility. But under no circumstances should you treat it as a long-term asset allocation—its risks are truly high.