‍#Polymarket每日热点

As May reaches its final week, the monthly chart is about to close. When it comes to Bitcoin’s price at the end of the month, I’m betting on $70,000 for the following reasons:

1. From a technical perspective, after Bitcoin failed to achieve a key top-and-bottom reversal at 78,200 during the early upswing, it was then further constrained by the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands. It surged and then fell back; in the absence of negative news, it has essentially moved in a one-directional downward pattern (with occasional pin-pricks), which indicates extreme market weakness. On the 4-hour timeframe, the ADX is only 10.5, which is a very weak trend; the J value of the KDJ is neutral, meaning there is no short-term oversold condition; RSI is about 54.6, staying in a neutral range, and WR=-31.6 is also relatively neutral. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and price is gently declining along the lower band, suggesting that the bearish structure will remain for the short to medium term.

On the daily timeframe, the ADX is only 15.9, meaning trend strength is weak; the moving averages are arranged in a bearish formation. EMA200 at $77,380 is significantly higher than the current price, and the pressure from the medium- to long-term moving averages is evident. CCI is -81.5, sitting in the bearish zone, implying daily momentum is still leaning downward. The daily SAR is at $78,574, far above the current price of $75,850. This is a classic bearish signal—price needs to break above $78,574 to reverse the SAR direction. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands presents clear resistance to price. The MACD green histogram bars are expanding moderately, indicating that the decline has not ended.

On the weekly timeframe, although the price is currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands for 3 consecutive weeks, it is clearly being suppressed by the 5-week and 30-week moving averages. This week, pay attention to whether the weekly price can hold above $74,500. If it breaks below, it suggests a return to the bear market, and there may likely be an accelerated sell-off.

2. From a news perspective, over the weekend and the beginning of this week, despite positive developments such as the basic agreement on the U.S.-Iran talks, the rebound in price has been limited. The positive news has largely been digested; the price has returned to a downward trend. Currently, the market is betting that the U.S.-Iran agreement will be reached before the end of May. If it cannot be achieved by the end of the month, it may trigger another wave of decline. In addition, high oil prices have caused concerns about high inflation that are already being felt within the United States. The market has shifted its expectations from betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year to betting on rate hikes within the year. Monetary policy remains like the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over gold and Bitcoin. However, for now, before the end of the month, there likely won’t be any further major “moves” on the U.S.-Iran situation. So despite the weak market, the probability of breaking below $70,000 is not high.

Therefore, based on everything above, I’m betting that Bitcoin’s price at the end of May will be $70,000. My betting strategy is to place a large-position bet and hold until the end of the month. $XPTUSD
‍#TradFi交易分享挑战