Looking back to last October, when Bitcoin surged past its all-time high of $126,000, the amount of coins held by these long-term holders was about 14.12 million. Since then, it has grown significantly to 16.3 million, and just within the past month alone, it has increased by roughly 200,000 Bitcoins.

Historically, the only time when the long-term holders’ coin holdings were higher than they are now was on the eve of the launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024, when it reached 16.4 million. However, in the following months, as Bitcoin’s price rallied strongly, these large holders also took the opportunity to realize profits, selling nearly 2 million Bitcoins.

According to past market conventions, when coin prices are stagnant or the market is deep in a bear market, it is often the best time for “smart money” to step in and buy at a discount. They are accustomed to selling off at the peak of bull markets and rebuilding their positions when the market hits a low point and retail investors panic. Looking back at the two major bear markets in 2015 and 2019, it can be observed that long-term holders quietly accumulated when coin prices weakened, driving a significant increase in the total amount of coins held.