I’ve been paying close attention to changes in the RMB exchange rate lately, and honestly, this move really is quite interesting. From the beginning of last year to now, the RMB against the US dollar has rebounded from its lows—especially over the past six months, when the momentum toward appreciation has become clearly stronger. Looking back, throughout 2025 the RMB was “tossing” in a range of 7.1 to 7.3, with an annual appreciation of about 2.4%. By the end of the year, it even once approached 7.08, reaching a new high in nearly a year. Now that we’re in mid-2026, discussion about this exchange-rate forecast topic is only getting hotter.

Why has such a reversal happened? Mainly because several major background changes have occurred. First, the era of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022 that pushed the dollar higher is over; now the US dollar index is clearly weakening, which is directly beneficial for the RMB. Second, the easing of China-US trade relations has also boosted market confidence, and on top of that, China’s export resilience has remained strong for a long time—combined, these factors have laid the foundation for RMB appreciation.

Let’s see what international banks are saying. Deutsche Bank previously predicted that the RMB would rise to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley believes that by the end of 2026, the US dollar index could fall back to 89, which would give the RMB an opportunity to reach around 7.05. Goldman Sachs, in a report, even pointed out that the RMB’s real effective exchange rate is undervalued by 12%, with the degree of undervaluation against the US dollar even deeper, at 15%. Although these forecasts were issued a bit early, the logic behind them is still sound.

That said, if you want to participate in the market by investing in RMB-related currency pairs, whether you can make money now really depends on timing. In the short term, the RMB should continue to stay relatively strong, but the probability of a large, rapid appreciation is not high. The real key factors that influence exchange-rate forecasts are basically those few: whether the US dollar index will continue to depreciate, whether there are new variables in China-US negotiations, how the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut pace will be carried out, and the policy orientation of the People’s Bank of China.

From inside China, how loose or tight the central bank’s monetary policy is is crucial. Historically, the series of consecutive interest rate cuts and reserve requirement cuts in 2014 directly pushed the RMB from 6 to 7.4, which shows the power of policy. Now the central bank is inclined to keep policy relatively accommodative to support the economy, which usually creates downward pressure on the RMB; however, if it is paired with strong fiscal stimulus, the RMB can still be supported in the long run.

From the outside, the Federal Reserve’s moves are the most important. If inflation remains persistently high, the Fed may slow the pace of rate cuts, making the dollar easier to strengthen and putting pressure on the RMB. Conversely, if economic slowdown becomes clearly evident, accelerated rate cuts would weaken the dollar. You should also watch China’s economic data—indicators such as GDP, PMI, and CPI will all affect foreign investors’ willingness to flow money in, thereby influencing the RMB’s supply and demand.

To judge the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, I think you can observe it from these dimensions. First, look at whether the central bank’s monetary policy is loose or tight, as that directly affects the money supply. Second, pay attention to economic data: stable growth in China tends to attract foreign capital, strengthening demand for the RMB. Third, keep an eye on the dollar’s direction, especially the policy stances of the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Finally, don’t forget the official stance on the exchange rate—although the RMB is gradually becoming more market-driven, the central bank’s guidance still remains quite evident.

For investors who want to take part in this market, there are several ways to do so. Commercial banks can open foreign exchange accounts to trade. Some foreign exchange trading platforms support two-way trading, meaning you can go long or go short, and they also offer leverage options—this gives an opportunity to amplify returns for investors who can make accurate predictions. Of course, leverage also means higher risk, so you need to assess your own risk tolerance. Securities firms and futures exchanges also provide related channels for foreign-exchange investing.

Overall, when it comes to RMB exchange-rate forecasting, the core is still to grasp the big-picture directions of macro policy and economic data. Information in the foreign-exchange market is publicly available and trading volume is high; the two-way trading mechanism is relatively fair for retail investors. As long as you capture those key factors and manage the timing well, there are still chances to profit from it.