Recently, I saw someone taking the chain of logic "Stablecoin supply increases = off-chain funds coming in = about to take off" as the truth... Frankly, correlation does not equal causation. When stablecoins increase, it could be because someone minted them first and is holding them for an opportunity, or it could be exchanges/market makers adjusting inventories, or even just cross-chain transfers moving funds back and forth, and once the bridge is blocked, it all turns into "supply change."

ETFs are even more amusing; inflows and outflows can indeed influence sentiment, but don’t forget that a lot of money is already circulating within the system, and changing the shell just makes it look like "new funds." Plus, with recent expectations of rate cuts, the dramatic synchronized rise and fall of the US dollar index and risk assets makes it even easier for people to tell themselves stories.

My current habit is: when I see this kind of chart, I first ask, "Where exactly is the money coming from, how did it get here, and is there a bridge fee or blockage along the way?" If I can't get a clear answer, I don’t rush to get excited. Anyway, the market loves rewarding confidence, and I might as well use that to teach a lesson.