I just noticed that gold has fallen nicely after the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data in April. The PPI index surged 6% year-over-year, which is higher than expected, pushing the market to stop expecting the Fed to cut interest rates soon.

At the time of writing this article, XAU/USD is trading around $4,699, down about 0.30%. U.S. bond yields have risen, and the dollar has strengthened, putting downward pressure on gold. The overly high U.S. inflation data indicates that inflation remains sticky and there are risks from geopolitical situations as well.

From a technical perspective, gold is struggling at the $4,700 level. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are above at $4,749 and $4,780, respectively. If the price does not break above, a further decline may occur. Momentum is pointing downward, and the RSI index has fallen below 50, signaling a bearish trend.

The market will watch U.S. employment data and retail sales this week. If U.S. economic data remains strong, gold could fall below $4,600, as the market will stop expecting the Fed to cut interest rates. Currently, it seems the Fed will keep interest rates steady for the rest of the year, depending on how much U.S. inflation decreases.