I just re-examined the copper investments of 2024 and have to say: The analysis back then was actually quite interesting. Many were speculating on the copper price forecast for 2024 because it was clear that the energy transition would require massive amounts of copper.

At that time, the copper price was around $8,500 per ton and fluctuated between $7,800 and $9,500. The calculation was pretty simple: China had just built up its infrastructure, but housing construction was stagnating. At the same time, demand was expected to rise sharply due to electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar power. Copper is used everywhere—four times as much as in regular cars, significantly more in wind turbines than in coal or nuclear power plants.

What fascinated at the time was that stockpiles at the London Metals Exchange were extremely low. Historically, this leads to higher prices. And indeed, in 2023, there were several production outages at various mines that had not yet been offset. Additionally, hardly any new large mining projects were planned—simply because the overall growth rate of 2.7 percent per year was considered too moderate.

The copper price forecast for 2024 was based on an interesting mix: On one hand, interest rates were expected to fall (in the US from March, in Europe during the summer), which would boost growth. On the other hand, supply was tight. Especially after the Chinese New Year holiday in February, demand was expected to pick up again and inventories would continue to shrink.

For investors, there were several options at the time. Copper stocks of established companies like Freeport-McMoRan showed high correlation with the copper price and still paid dividends. Then there were copper ETFs—more cost-effective but with annual fees of up to one percent. Futures were more suitable for experienced traders but significantly riskier.

The long-term story was clear: Renewable energies would be a growth driver. In 2023, they accounted for only seven percent of global copper demand but were expected to rise to 17 percent by 2030. Wind energy, photovoltaics, battery storage, electric commercial vehicles—all with double-digit growth rates over ten years. That was the long-term thesis.

In the medium term, the copper price forecast for 2024 was more based on tighter inventories and cyclical growth. The question was: Would the global economy really pick up? The US was expected to remain stable, Europe stagnate, and China try to maintain 5 percent growth. With interest rate cuts, that should work.

Of course, there were also risks. A new inflation shock caused by oil prices could change everything. Wars, unexpected events like COVID—copper is pro-cyclical, following the economic cycle. Investors need to understand that.

For long-term investors, the recommendation back then was: No more than 10 percent of the portfolio in copper stocks, but targeted in companies with solid fundamentals and diversified mining activities. Setting stop-losses was essential. Short-term traders should actively monitor LME inventories and mining news.

The interesting thing: The entire analysis showed that the copper price forecast for 2024 depended less on absolute demand than on supply. As long as no new large mines came online—and that was not planned—the supply would remain tight. And tight supply leads to higher prices. That was the core logic.

Today, two years later, one can say: The forecast was not so wrong. Those who bet on copper demand and the green energy transition back then were fundamentally correct. The shift to renewable energies has become a reality, and copper demand has increased. Whether prices developed exactly as forecasted is another matter—markets are always more complex than models. But the fundamentals were right then and still are today.