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The four-year Bitcoin cycle has not died, Benjamin Cowen says the lowest point for BTC may occur in October 2026

The four-year Bitcoin cycle is still progressing well, said Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse. The price peak currently occurs within one week of the historical period, and the next low point is expected to happen in Q4 2026.

This analyst dismisses claims that spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate demand, and Bitcoin reserve narratives have broken the pattern. Previous cycles also always featured similar narratives that failed before the bear market began.

Reaching the Peak According to Historical Patterns

In his latest video, the Cryptoverse founder responds to many analysts who say this cycle has ended.

“Bitcoin reached its peak just one week from the historical peak period, despite narratives claiming the four-year cycle has ended.”

The previous two cycles peaked on the 1,059th and 1,168th days from the previous low. The current cycle peaks on the 1,162nd day.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around US$75,650, down about 40% from the record high of US$126,080 on October 6.

Peak Due to Apathy Does Not Cancel Out a Bear Market

Critics argue that Bitcoin peaked because of apathy, not euphoria, and this is considered to break the historical pattern. Cowen compares this to S&P 500 data from 1962 to 1982. He emphasizes that the four-year low cycle still applies, even if the peak is not always a big surge.

“Reaching the peak due to apathy does not mean there will be no bear market, because looking at the past, stock markets also peaked during periods of apathy and still experienced bear markets.”

He sees the current counter-trend rally as weaker than the 46% surge from the 2022 low. The movement over the past 16 weeks also remains within the range of 15 to 25 weeks, similar to recoveries in previous midterm years.

Benjamin Cowen: Invalidity Scenario

Cowen recognizes that this prediction could be wrong, but he believes the burden of proof lies with the bulls.

“Assuming this situation is different just because of certain narratives from Wall Street is a mistake that people have made in previous cycles.”

Even if the outcome is milder, he estimates Bitcoin will return to US$60,000 by the end of this year. The ongoing bull rally will only occur after the price tests that level.

The main scenario for the cycle bottom point is October 2026. This pattern aligns with midterm year trends like in 2014, 2018, and 2022. This prediction also aligns with other analysts’ analyses that expect a bottom during the same period.