#Polymarket每日热点 End of May Bitcoin Outlook: Weak Volatility Around $75,000

On May 27, BTC once again fell below $76k, currently trading at $75,854, with a total decline of about 3% this month. With only four trading days left until the monthly close, the hope of a rebound to higher levels is slim, and the room for further decline is also limited, likely ending the month in the $75,000–$76,500 range.

The core factors suppressing a rebound: First, macro liquidity tightening. In April, PPI soared 6% year-over-year, and CPI remains high at 3.8%, with the market no longer expecting rate cuts this year and even beginning to price in rate hike risks. U.S. Treasury yields rose to a 16-month high, and institutional funds continued to flow out of Bitcoin spot ETFs—net outflows in mid to late May exceeded $1.2 billion, with buying pressure exhausted. Second, technical breakdown. The $78,000 level has shifted from support to strong resistance, with short-term holders' average cost around $78,600; any rebound to this area will face selling pressure to cut losses.

Buffer factors limiting deeper declines: The number of whale addresses has risen to a yearly high, and corporate buyers are still accumulating in the $77,000–$81,000 range; Bitcoin balances on exchanges are near a seven-year low, providing supply scarcity support at the bottom. $75,000 is a key psychological barrier; if broken, it will test $74,500, but the probability of a decisive breakdown is low.

Conclusion: The end of May is unlikely to see a reversal, more likely a weak consolidation. Rebounds cannot break through $78,000, and declines are unlikely to fall below $74,500. Investors should pay attention to core PCE data this Thursday; if the data is hawkish and exceeds expectations, it may accelerate a slight decline to around $74,800 by month-end; if in line with expectations, prices may stabilize around $75,500. Overall, maintain caution and avoid betting on a rebound.