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Institutional Warning: The market does not believe in Trump's "peace agreement," and the Strait of Hormuz may face long-term disruptions
Breaking News from Mars Finance, May 27 — Piper Sandler's latest report indicates that the market's optimistic expectations about the United States and Iran reaching an agreement soon are unfounded. The Strait of Hormuz may remain largely closed for several months, and oil prices could hit new highs this summer. The institution states that it currently hardly believes that shipping through the strait will return to 50% of pre-war levels within the next few weeks, and it expects supply shortages to continue driving up energy prices. Meanwhile, recent U.S. airstrikes targeting Iran and Iran's warning that "there will be a price to pay" for strait passage further increase market uncertainty.
Standard & Poor's Global Energy President Dave Ernsberger also said that the market is currently "afraid to establish crude oil positions" because information surrounding negotiations, strait reopening, and potential fee mechanisms is extremely chaotic.
The report states that the market is also concerned that Iran may impose "tolls" on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the future. Although Iranian officials deny the existence of "fees," they emphasize that navigation through the strait and ecological protection "will have costs."
Industry insiders expect that even if an opening agreement is reached in the future, it may take months or even a year for global oil transportation to return to normal, and market volatility and high oil price risks will persist.