If the Strait of Hormuz really gets tightly blockaded, summer refueling will hurt again, and Piper Sandler’s forecast sounds pretty solid.

Piper Sandler states that the optimism about the US and Iran reaching an agreement is unfounded, as the Strait of Hormuz may be closed on a large scale in the coming months, and oil prices could hit new highs this summer. Shipping is difficult to recover to 50% of pre-war levels, and supply shortages are driving up energy prices. The US airstrikes on Iran and Iran's warning about Strait passage will come at a cost, increasing market uncertainty. Even if an opening agreement is reached, global crude oil transportation will still take several months to a year to recover, and oil price fluctuations will persist.