I have just carefully reviewed how the USD will behave against the Mexican peso in the coming months, and there are several factors suggesting that the dollar will remain under bullish pressure in Mexico throughout 2025 and beyond.

What’s interesting is that the USD/MXN pair has recently been fluctuating around 19.88 pesos, but the volatility we’ve seen reflects something deeper: the economic gap between the United States and Mexico is widening. While the U.S. economy is growing more solidly (around 2.1% according to forecasts), Mexico is only managing growth of 1.3%, which should naturally strengthen the dollar versus the peso.

Now, there’s a factor that many people overlook: monetary policy. Banxico has been cutting rates for months, reaching 10.50% in September 2024. These cuts will continue in 2025, and here is the key point: when central banks reduce rates, assets denominated in that currency become less attractive to investors. This weakens the peso in a fairly predictable way. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is also cutting, but its dollar yields will remain competitive compared with those of the peso.

Inflation in Mexico also plays an important role here. It is expected to remain between 3.7% and 3.9%, meaning it will not reach Banxico’s 3% target. This keeps downward pressure on the peso. When a currency does not control inflation well, investors look for refuge in stronger currencies. The dollar is always the preferred destination at times like these.

From a technical analysis perspective, the pair shows some interesting signals. The Bollinger Bands indicate that we recently touched the upper band, suggesting bullish momentum. The RSI is in neutral territory (53.42), so we are not overbought—meaning there is room for the dollar to keep rising in Mexico if the fundamentals support it.

What catches my attention is the variety of forecasts for end of 2025. Some analysts project the pair at 22.63, others at 25.83, and still others much more conservatively at 18.77. This dispersion reflects real market uncertainty, but the overall trend points upward.

Oil prices are also relevant here. Mexico depends significantly on its crude oil exports, so any drop in oil prices puts pressure on the peso. In addition, political stability in both countries remains a risk factor that investors constantly monitor.

For those considering positions in this pair, moments of maximum liquidity often coincide with announcements of monetary policy or major economic reports. CFDs offer a way to speculate on these moves without needing to own the currency physically, although of course leverage requires careful risk management.

In summary, everything points to sustained pressure on the Mexican peso. Differences in economic growth, rate cuts in Mexico, and persistent inflation create a scenario in which the dollar will likely maintain its relative strength. This does not mean it is a sure bet, but the fundamentals appear aligned for the dollar to keep gaining ground against the peso in the medium term.