Crude's been on a solid three-day run and just hit a two-week high, but there's something worth watching here. Middle East oil dynamics are getting spicier than the price action suggests. We've got this supposed US-Iran ceasefire extension, but honestly, nobody's buying it as permanent. The real story is what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz - that's where the actual risk premium is sitting. Trump doubled down Tuesday saying the Navy blockade on Iranian ports stays in place. Then you've got reports of Iranian Revolutionary Guards seizing vessels and container ships getting hit by gunfire in the strait on Wednesday. That's the kind of headline that keeps traders nervous and keeps bids under crude. WTI's holding just above $92 right now, up about 0.30% on the day, but the momentum earlier fizzled when that Tehran attack rumor didn't pan out. There was also a surprise draw in US crude stockpiles which gave things a nudge, but without fresh geopolitical escalation, it's hard to see what the next catalyst is. The thing is, the fundamental setup still favors higher oil prices. Middle East tensions aren't going away anytime soon, and that supply disruption risk through one of the world's most critical chokepoints remains real. So while we might see some consolidation from here, the bias stays bullish as long as these regional risks persist. Worth keeping an eye on for any escalation headlines.

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