Gold is caught between two fires now.. The latest US inflation data increases the likelihood of keeping interest rates high, and geopolitical risks in the Gulf support the buying side. The price is moving around $4,700 per ounce with sharp and narrow fluctuations, and the market clearly indicates it is in a critical waiting phase.

The annual inflation reached 3.8%, the highest in 3 years, and this changed all expectations. Markets have reduced their bets on a sharp rate cut, and are even beginning to price in the possibility of a new hike before the end of the year. For gold, rising interest rates and US yields mean higher holding costs for the metal, and investors are starting to shift their funds into the dollar and US bonds.

On the other hand, India has increased import duties on gold from 6% to 15%, which could significantly alter demand patterns in Asia. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s recent moves have revived some hedging demand for gold, but at the same time, they supported oil prices and raised inflation fears.

From a technical perspective, the price is centered around $4,700 as a key pivot point, and recent candles show repeated attempts to break above this level but quickly retreat. The MACD indicator is moving sideways near the zero line with diminishing momentum, and the RSI at 49.8 reflects a state of complete neutrality between buyers and sellers.

Important levels: resistances at $4,800, $4,900, and $5,000. Supports at $4,600, $4,500, and $4,400. If the price holds above $4,705 with a clear close, it may open the way toward $4,750 then $4,800. If it clearly breaks below $4,650, we might see a broader correction toward $4,600 then $4,500.

Regarding gold price forecasts for the coming days, analysts expect sharp sideways movements. UBS predicts a short-term range of $4,620 - $4,740 with the possibility of returning to $4,800 if positive surprises appear. Deutsche Bank sees potential pressure toward $4,540 - $4,600 if the dollar and yields continue to rise. Macquarie expects sideways movements between $4,600 and $4,780 with high sensitivity to the anticipated summit between Trump and Xi Jinping and developments in the Gulf.

The market is now awaiting US producer price data, European economic data, and US crude inventories. Any surprise in these data could quickly determine the direction of gold. The situation is complex, but the metal has remained above $4,600 so far, which maintains a positive outlook as long as it stays above this level.