What is the biggest factor influencing the current Bitcoin trend?

Author: Blockchain Knight; Source: X, @Knight_in_Block

Multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin is at a delicate moment shaped by both internal leverage fragility and external macro uncertainty.

Although short-term volatility has eased, downside risks remain concentrated, and the hope for easing brought by US-Iran ceasefire negotiations is not enough to fundamentally lift the pressure of interest rate environments on risk assets.

Within the market, leverage structure imbalance is becoming the most urgent hidden danger. Data shows that around $14.3 billion of potential liquidation pressure is stacked near Bitcoin's current price level, with an extremely uneven distribution.

Long liquidation positions are densely clustered within a narrow range of about 6% to 7% below the spot price, which means that once support is broken, the price decline could be sharply accelerated by a chain reaction of forced liquidations.

Spot demand has failed to provide effective hedging, with the US spot Bitcoin ETF recording approximately $2.26 billion in net outflows over two weeks, and the 30-day rolling flow returning to negative territory, indicating institutional buying is waning.

Broader on-chain demand is also sluggish, with demand indicators dropping to the lowest levels of the year, and stablecoins continuously net outflowing from exchanges, losing over $300 million daily.

This has deprived the market of a key buffer to absorb selling pressure, and short-term holders have slipped from marginal profits into losses again, with their cost basis falling below long-term valuation. Similar signals in history often foreshadow deeper corrections.

However, volatility indicators within the market show a different picture. Bitcoin's annualized realized volatility has fallen to its lowest level since early 2026, suggesting that the phase of sharp turbulence is giving way to a relatively calm period. But this calm is more like a waiting game than evidence that risks have dissipated.

In the external environment, the US-Iran situation remains the biggest variable influencing the overall picture. A new strike near the Strait of Hormuz has turned a potential easing ceasefire extension into a test of oil risk, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy paths.

Currently, both sides are discussing a 60-day ceasefire and nuclear negotiations framework. The market temporarily responded with easing expectations: oil prices declined, inflation worries eased, risk appetite rebounded, and Bitcoin briefly climbed.

Bitcoin's reaction to this geopolitical crisis heavily depends on a clear transmission chain: oil prices, Treasury yields, the dollar, and Federal Reserve rate expectations.

If Brent crude remains below $100 and shipping flows substantially recover, inflation risk premiums may diminish.

Currently, the market has significantly pushed back the timing of rate cuts and even started pricing in rate hikes into late 2026. The Fed is unlikely to loosen policy until energy disruption risks are fully resolved.

Overall, the 60-day negotiation window sets two possible paths for Bitcoin. If an agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices will decline, rate hike expectations will fade, and Bitcoin could gain macro support and break upward.

If negotiations are delayed, shipping recovery is slow, and oil prices stay high throughout the summer, the Fed will have to adjust its policy stance. Bitcoin may rebound on occasional positive news but will generally struggle to break through on a macro level.