Gold oscillating near $4,700 while risks in the Middle East keep the dollar strong. I've been monitoring this since yesterday, and things are more tense than before.

Basically, the geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to support the US dollar, and that’s weighing heavily on gold. Additionally, people are betting that the Fed won’t cut interest rates so quickly due to persistent inflation. When the dollar is strong like this, gold that doesn’t generate yield tends to lose appeal. Global inflation has risen significantly because of supply chain issues in that strategic maritime route, so central banks might become more cautious.

Technically, the pair is close to the support of the ascending channel around 4,691. The RSI is at 39, right at the lower extreme, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening. If it convincingly breaks below that, it opens the door to deeper losses down to 4,568. Risks for gold remain tilted downward as long as these US and geopolitical factors stay on the radar. Above 4,926 would be the point for optimists to try to reverse this pressure.