Don’t go long in a bear market. Are these 5 reasons enough?

1. **Market trend:** The daily trend has officially confirmed a bear market; the rebound has ended, gaps have been filled, and the outlook is for a move toward and a drop below 60,000. In the short term, constrained by the May 29 options settlement, prices will most likely trade in a volatile range of 75,000–80,000, making it difficult to break through effectively.

2. **Macro bearish factors:** Statements from newly appointed officials about shrinking the balance sheet and refusing to provide a backstop have marked the end of the cheap-liquidity cycle. CPI and employment data are stronger than expected, rate-cut expectations have been completely dashed, expectations for rate hikes by year-end are heating up, and long-term liquidity is tightening.

3. **Risk in the U.S. stock market:** Two major exchanges have triggered ominous “Erlangd” signals (Eudred omen). The Shiller P/E ratio is nearing the peak of the internet bubble, and the index is propped up only by leading megacap companies, resulting in inflated overall valuations.

4. **Event impact:** The marginal positive effect from geopolitical developments is weakening. A ceasefire will only bring short-term, pulse-like market action, with no incremental capital entering.

5. **Major risk inflection point (June 12):** SpaceX’s largest IPO in history ($75 billion) + inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 will significantly pull liquidity out of the risk market. Combined with the high correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, and referencing the historical example of Bitcoin’s price falling sharply after Coinbase’s 2021 listing, market liquidity pressure will surge in June, making the downside risk extremely high.

## Trading strategy

- **Overall approach:** Don’t chase longs, don’t try to catch the bottom, and don’t hold a long-term bullish position.

- **Regular operations:** Short at highs within the trading range; after the price breaks down decisively, add to short positions.

- **Special market conditions:** If a sudden full ceasefire triggers a short-term rally, you can open short positions (BTC 5s) for a quick trade, targeting the 60,000 range to capture gains.