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Castle Securities is calling out pretty harshly this time; if inflation can't be contained, interest rate cuts are basically unlikely.
April CPI year-over-year 3.8%, oil prices and the AI boom have driven inflation, interest rates are near neutral but inconsistent with strong economic expectations.
Former New York Fed Dudley warns that the Fed's credibility is damaged, long-term inflation expectations are rising, leaving almost no reason to cut rates, and concerns are heightened by the AI boom, debt issues, and independence disputes.