#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍# Micron's Market Cap Surpasses $1 Trillion
AI Bubble or Value Reversion?

To start with the conclusion, as the demand for AI computing power explodes, the storage industry has for the first time introduced “long-term supply agreements (LTA) with some fixed pricing.” This model completely disrupts the previous cyclical game of “spot pricing with wild price swings,” and in this context, Micron’s stock performance should be more accurately described as a rediscovery of value rather than a bubble.

Fundamental support: AI demand triggers a leap in profit quality

The market’s revaluation of Micron is not driven solely by sentiment but is based on an unprecedented improvement in profit quality.

‌Revenue and profit‌: Fiscal year 2025 revenue reaches $37.38 billion, up 48.9% year-over-year; fiscal year 2026 Q2 gross margin soars to 75%, a record high, with Q3 guidance as high as 81%.

‌AI business penetration‌: AI server demand consumes two-thirds of global DRAM capacity, with memory requirements per AI server being 8–10 times that of traditional servers. Micron’s HBM market share is about 21%, and it has mass-produced HBM4 for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform, with bandwidth reaching 2.8TB/s, leading in performance.

‌Cash flow restructuring‌: In fiscal year 2026 Q2, operating cash flow hits $11.9 billion, with cumulative free cash flow expected to exceed $400 billion from 2027 to 2029. Profits are no longer “fleeting,” but a sustainable cash-generating machine.

From “quick money” to “sure profit,” Micron’s profit structure has undergone a qualitative change.

‌Valuation reasonableness: High but not a bubble, it’s the early realization of expectations

Currently, Micron’s PE is 53.5x, and PS is 13.38x, far above the historical average (PE 10x, PS 2x) and industry average (PE 20x, PS 5x), with deviations of 435% and 568%, respectively.

But this is not without foundation:

‌Valuation anchored in 2029‌: UBS uses a forward valuation method, based on an EPS of $117 for fiscal year 2029, discounted to the present, rather than current profits. This means the market is buying “certainty of profits over the next three years.”

‌Comparison with NVIDIA‌: NVIDIA’s current PE is about 70x, based on long-term monopoly expectations for AI chips; Micron’s PE of 53.5x, based on the immediate demand for AI storage and the protective moat of agreements, justifies the valuation premium.

‌Historical comparison‌: At the peak of the storage cycle in 2021, Micron’s PE was only 25x, with profits far below current levels. Now, with profits doubled and volatility gone, the doubled valuation reflects a discovery of value rather than speculative frenzy.

‌Conclusion‌: The current valuation is an early pricing of structural change, not a bubble detached from fundamentals. $ASTS