Market Analysis for May 27 — Brief Update

Trend Direction: Empty and Bare

BTC:

Last night, following the US stock market's brief surge above 78,000 and then pulling back after being blocked at the 4H MA90, it smoothly fell below the recent consolidation area in the early morning. The daily chart's torrential rain pattern indicates that the market is re-entering the second decline phase of the downtrend. The short-term support resonance zone at the 12H and daily levels, which was mentioned yesterday, remains valid, i.e., a rebound can be attempted around 73,718 ±200 USD (in case of a sharp drop, attempt a rebound near 73,024). At the same time, support around 75,500 during the daily session should also be watched; this level was also yesterday’s low. Over the past dozens of trading days, it’s rare for the daily chart to break below the previous day’s low, so there might be a quick spike below 75,500 followed by a rebound, then another decline during the night session.

ETH:

The trend is still weaker than BTC. After touching the EMA20 three times on the 12H chart, I initially thought the fourth time might break out, but it turned out to be a false breakout. It was blocked at the upper edge of the resistance zone between 2088-2140 and pulled back, also forming a torrential rain pattern on the 12H chart. Now it has entered a 15-minute downtrend flag channel, and the lower boundary of the flag has already been broken. The overall trend is definitely downward, but similar to BTC, it’s rare for the daily chart to break below the previous day’s low in recent trading days—at most, a quick spike downward. Combining this with liquidation data within 48H, today may be similar to BTC, with the daily chart possibly spiking down to 2041-2052 before rebounding, then falling again during the night session. The support levels mentioned yesterday remain valid, i.e., around 1990 (or 1951 in case of a sharp drop). Those who can monitor the market during the night session may consider quick entries and exits at these levels to catch rebounds.

Whether BTC or ETH, the downward trend is highly confirmed, and there is also a possibility of a major breakdown this week or next. Therefore, friends who want to catch rebounds should avoid “overestimating the pattern,” take profits when the market looks good, and mainly focus on shorting rebounds.

Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has turned fully negative. After the Nasdaq hit a new high yesterday, it’s showing a clear trend of “rapid rise without further movement,” and if US stocks start to pull back, it could accelerate the decline in cryptocurrencies.

Trading Suggestions (ETH):

1. Trend Position

Holding short positions: do not place take-profit orders for now; wait until further decline appears before analyzing specific levels.

2. Short-term Position

(1) Holding short positions: set take-profit at 1997; those who can monitor the market closely may consider 1958;

For high-frequency traders, consider taking profits during the daily session at 2041-2052, and wait for a rebound to around 2088-2098 before entering new shorts. If the market first rises then falls, this operation can be skipped.

(2) Long positions: monitor quick entries and exits at 1990 and 1951; the core depends on Bitcoin reaching around 73,718 (or 73,024 in case of a sharp drop).

No changes to major support and resistance levels. After breaking the upward point since April 5, the structure may be reconfigured. The levels are as follows:

BTC

Support: 74,806-75,500, 73,024-74,156, 69,483-70,876

Resistance: 76,588-77,601, 78,156-79,257, 80,598-82,656

ETH

Support: 1,990-2,041, 1,894-1,951, 1,820-1,871

Resistance: 2,088-2,140, 2,160-2,204, 2,236-2,273