The valuation gap between Bitcoin and US tech stocks hits an all-time high! Bitwise: BTC is expected to see a rebound in the second half of the year.

Bitcoin's current valuation is below its historical median, while U.S. tech stocks are approaching record highs, creating the largest valuation gap on record. Asset management firm Bitwise and crypto research organization XWIN Japan point out that this valuation disparity may suggest BTC is transitioning from a pure risk asset to a hybrid asset, with potential for a rebound in the second half of the year.
(Background recap: SEC approves Nasdaq Bitcoin index options! Bypassing ETFs to directly bet on BTC prices)
(Additional background: CME Group teams up with Nasdaq to launch the first "Crypto Index Futures")

Table of Contents

Toggle

• Capital inflows into AI tech stocks may boost Bitcoin
• Overlooked signals: leverage stacking and BTC risk index
• BTC risk index back at high levels, historical bottom signals reappear
• Cross-market perspective: insights for Taiwanese investors

Bitcoin (BTC) currently has a Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of 1.42, placing it in a relatively low position within its historical range. According to the weekly Crypto Market Compass report from asset management firm Bitwise, only 36% of historical MVRV readings are below the current level.

In contrast, the price-to-book (P/B) ratio of the Nasdaq 100 index has nearly surpassed 99% of historical data. Bitwise describes this gap as "the largest valuation disparity on record between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks."

MVRV is a commonly used valuation metric in the crypto space, calculated by dividing the total market cap of Bitcoin by the value of all coins during their most recent on-chain activity, similar to the P/B ratio in stock markets. A higher MVRV indicates a hotter market; a lower MVRV suggests Bitcoin is relatively undervalued.

Capital inflows into AI tech stocks may boost Bitcoin

Bitwise notes that part of this valuation gap is driven by capital flooding into large U.S. tech stocks, especially those related to AI. Investors are increasingly viewing these companies as high-end hard assets similar to gold. Bitwise adds:

The synchronized rise of the U.S. stock market and gold may indicate a growing overall demand for hard assets, which could provide upward momentum for Bitcoin.

This assessment aligns with recent market trends. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $77k and $79k, while large-cap Nasdaq stocks have continued to hit new highs.

Overlooked signals: leverage stacking and BTC risk index

Crypto research firm XWIN Japan confirms the same trend from another perspective. The organization points out that hedge fund leverage ratios have risen to about 293%, and the dollar short positions on the S&P 500 have reached historic highs. Notably, Nvidia alone accounts for about $62.5 billion in short exposure, far exceeding Apple’s $38.5 billion and Microsoft’s $33.7 billion.

XWIN Japan also warns that high market concentration implies potential downside risk. During the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin followed U.S. stocks in a synchronized crash. From 2020 to 2022, BTC’s price trend was largely aligned with the S&P 500.

However, since 2025, this correlation has begun to weaken. The S&P 500 has fluctuated within a relatively stable range, while Bitcoin has experienced larger price swings. XWIN Japan attributes this to increased spot buying and ongoing inflows into spot ETFs, with more Bitcoin price movements driven by crypto-native demand. XWIN states:

This suggests that Bitcoin may be evolving from a pure "risk asset" into a hybrid asset class, still sensitive to macro liquidity but increasingly able to develop its own market structure.

BTC risk index back at high levels, historical bottom signals reappear

Crypto analyst MorenoDV examines the BTC risk index from CryptoQuant. This indicator tracks the proportion of Bitcoin market capital flow relative to total market cap, which has recently risen above 2. Historically, such levels have appeared near major market bottoms.

Higher readings typically occur during panic selling, indicating rapid turnover of BTC; lower readings are often seen at market peaks, signaling slowing buying activity. MorenoDV’s comparison chart shows that similar peaks appeared after the Mt. Gox collapse in 2015, during the 2018 bear market bottom, the March 2020 pandemic crash, and during the 2022 Terra Luna and FTX collapses.

Currently, the reading is the strongest signal since early 2023, but each cycle’s peak has been gradually diminishing, reflecting reduced volatility as Bitcoin’s market size expands. MorenoDV believes this means future market corrections may not be as severe as before. The current risk index places BTC in a relatively low-risk zone, but it has not yet reached the extreme capitulation levels seen in 2020 or 2022.

Cross-market perspective: insights for Taiwanese investors

The valuation gap between Bitcoin and tech stocks has practical implications for Taiwanese investors. The weighted stocks in Taiwan’s stock market (TSMC, MediaTek, Delta Electronics) currently have P/B ratios between 4 and 8, which are still within reasonable ranges. If Bitwise’s judgment that “demand for hard assets is rising” proves true, the capital flow path from tech stocks to Bitcoin might be: U.S. tech stocks adjust before spot ETFs, then transmit to the crypto-native market, with the price discovery at the spot exchanges occurring first.

For retail investors in Taiwan, Bitcoin’s current position below its historical median MVRV suggests that, if they choose to accumulate gradually now, the valuation safety margin has significantly improved compared to the peak of $85,000 in Q1 2025. However, it’s important to note that inflows into spot ETFs are changing Bitcoin’s price structure, meaning its volatility pattern may differ from previous cycles—more intense swings but smaller corrections. This calls for adjustments in position management strategies.