1. Gold: Tug-of-war between bulls and bears, short-term consolidation

On May 26, international gold prices fluctuated around the U.S.-Iran situation. In the Asian morning session, spot gold opened higher but quickly fell back, breaking below the $4,550 level; overnight, it surged 1.35% to $4,570.5, as easing geopolitical tensions temporarily supported gold prices.
On the fundamentals side, a sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation pressures, and market concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes slightly cooled, providing a positive outlook for gold. However, the high-interest-rate environment remains the biggest suppressor of gold prices. The market has fully priced in the Fed’s rate hikes this year, shifting the macro narrative from "cutting rates" to "higher and longer-lasting rates." Additionally, the trading logic in the gold market has fundamentally changed—from previous safe-haven driven by geopolitics to expectations of inflation and interest rates, with war uncertainties no longer being the natural support for gold prices.
Technical analysis shows that gold is currently oscillating within a broad range of $4,550 to $4,600. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator have formed a death cross and are turning upward, while KDJ and RSI indicators have formed a golden cross, indicating a short-term rebound opportunity. However, the $4,600 level (also near the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands) remains a significant resistance. Key support levels are at $4,550 and $4,500.
In the medium term, major institutions generally hold a "cautious in the short term, optimistic in the medium term" attitude. Citibank is bearish short-term to $4,300 per ounce but maintains a target of $5,000 in 6-12 months; Goldman Sachs, UBS, Standard Chartered, and other investment banks still expect prices to reach $5,500–$5,600 by the end of the year.
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2. Crude Oil: Decline first, then rebound, geopolitical premium oscillates
The crude oil market today showed intense volatility. Overnight, WTI crude fell below $91 per barrel, dropping over 6.4% intraday, while Brent crude plunged 6.6%. But the situation quickly reversed—according to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. military conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran on the 25th, escalating tensions again, and international oil prices rebounded sharply. As of 9:44 today, WTI rose 1.85% to $91.97, and Brent increased 2.22% to $95.49.
The core pricing narrative has shifted from "will conflict occur" to "when will traffic resume." Market focus is on key variables such as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of Iran’s frozen assets release. It is reported that the main obstacle in negotiations has shifted from nuclear material cooperation to fund unfreezing arrangements, with Iran demanding access to $12 billion of frozen assets in the first phase of the agreement, while the U.S. prefers to tie this to a final deal.
Technical analysis shows that Brent crude (around $99) remains below the daily Bollinger middle band at approximately $105.53, and MACD remains in a weak zone, indicating that the rebound is more about risk re-pricing after a correction rather than a strong trend breakout.
On the supply and demand fundamentals, global oil supply remains tight, with Gulf region output losses around 14 million barrels per day. U.S. crude inventories decreased by 7.86M barrels, far exceeding market expectations, with continuous inventory drawdowns providing support for oil prices. Many institutions believe that although oil prices have sharply retreated from geopolitical premiums, the clear fundamental logic of "supply collapse, demand slowdown, and inventory depletion" will limit further declines, making a large continuous drop less likely.
Currently, both gold and oil markets are primarily driven by the evolving U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation. In the short term, the pace of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and its impact on global inflation and interest rate expectations will be key factors determining the direction of these assets. If negotiations proceed smoothly, oil prices may continue to be pressured, and gold could benefit from the "oil price decline → inflation cooling → rate cut expectations rising" positive cycle; if geopolitical tensions flare up again, oil prices will regain support, but gold’s trading logic has shifted from safe-haven to concerns over inflation from high oil prices, making its trend more complex. Both bulls and bears are currently cautious, awaiting clearer geopolitical signals and data guidance. #Polymarket每日热点