I’ve just noticed an interesting development in the Japanese yen’s movement over the past few years—especially when compared with the Thai baht. The JPY/THB pair is definitely in a situation worth keeping an eye on.

Let’s look at the situation. About 10 years ago, the yen depreciated by more than 30% versus the baht, and the weakest point has been since 2020 (2563) onward. It is currently trading at around 0.2176 baht per yen, which is slightly above the long-term support level.

Why is this happening? There are several factors that affect the yen’s trend. First is the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. They continue to maintain negative interest rates (-0.1%) and control the yield curve (YCC) to stimulate the economy. Meanwhile, the US and Europe have started easing their tightening policies. This divergence is very important for yen movements.

Another factor is the economic situation. Japan is expected to be the world’s 5th-largest economy in 2025, with GDP of approximately $4.19 trillion. However, growth is still relatively slow, while Thailand is getting support from a tourism recovery and strong regional trade, which makes the baht more stable.

Another point of interest is the current account balance. If a country receives more money inflows than outflows, its currency tends to strengthen. Conversely, if outflows exceed inflows, the currency weakens. The yen in this period has been under pressure from this factor as well.

Looking ahead to 2026, what needs to be watched is the change in monetary policy. If the Bank of Japan begins tightening policy more seriously, the yen could appreciate to around 0.23–0.24 baht per yen. But if it still delays doing so, the yen may test fresh new lows below 0.21.

Geopolitical tensions in Asia are another factor that should not be overlooked. When there is risk, investors often shift toward safe-haven assets, and the yen is a classic choice. In addition, there is also the possibility that Japanese investors may repatriate funds back to their home country, which could further support the yen.

Based on the latest technical analysis, the sell signals are fairly strong, but the moving averages remain neutral, making the overall picture somewhat unclear. Still, there is a possibility of a reversal if market sentiment changes.

In summary, the yen’s outlook for this year and next will mainly depend on the Bank of Japan’s decisions. If they move away from easing policies in a more serious way, the yen has a chance to recover. But if hesitation continues, the yen may remain under downward pressure. Traders should closely monitor Japan’s policy signals, as they will be the key to forecasting the yen’s future direction.