In this game of Hormuz, Iran holds the oil tanker passage permit; Trump wants both face and substance. The $24 billion unfreezing is the real playbook of hard cash.

The US-Iran talks remain unsettled even as markets show optimism. Trump demands that enriched uranium be handed over and that the International Atomic Energy Agency provide full monitoring/continuous supervision throughout, with the unfreezing of funds becoming a key obstacle to negotiations; Iran warns that if the ceasefire is broken, it will retaliate. Israel warns Lebanon to evacuate and seeks to preserve freedom of action in Lebanon. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is complex: the US military has not clearly announced the restart of the passage, and oil tankers pass with Iran’s permission. Rubio says the strait must remain open, and the negotiations may take several days. Iran denies reaching a memorandum; if one exists, it would require the unfreezing of $24 billion in funds. With Qatar mediating, Tehran warns it will withdraw from the negotiations.