Gold revisits gains near $4,776, and markets await U.S.-Iranian negotiation results

I noticed a decline in gold prices by about 0.5% during yesterday's trading, settling near $4,795 per ounce. The market has entered a state of very cautious anticipation because the potential negotiations between Washington and Tehran have started to take up more of investors' attention. Interestingly, markets are no longer reacting sharply to geopolitical tensions alone but are beginning to link everything to tangible results regarding inflation and global supplies.

The US dollar rose slightly during the same period, adding additional pressure on gold. What catches my attention is that some major investment funds have started to reduce their positions in gold or at least stopped increasing them. This does not immediately reflect in prices but exerts pressure on overall momentum. Managers prefer to wait until the geopolitical scene and monetary policy become clearer.

On the supply side, expectations of renewed oil flows from the Middle East if negotiations succeed have improved the market's outlook on global supplies. This means liquidity is increasingly flowing toward growth-linked assets rather than safe havens like gold.

From a technical perspective, the price is trading under clear selling pressure. Repeated failure to break through the $4,800 region reflects a shift from an ascending accumulation phase to the beginning of a short-term correction. A so-called "false break" occurred where the price temporarily rose toward $4,850 before quickly retreating, indicating strong seller concentration at the peaks.

The MACD indicator has turned negative with a clear bearish crossover and has started forming red bars. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 42 after a sharp decline from overbought levels. All this indicates a significant outflow of buying liquidity.

The closest scenario now is the continuation of the short-term downward correction. If the price clearly breaks below $4,750, gold may head toward $4,700 then $4,650. However, if the upward momentum is regained and it moves back above $4,785 and breaks through the $4,800-$4,810 range, we may see a strong return of buyers targeting $5,000 again.

Gold forecasts today are directly linked to the defense line at $4,750. This level will determine whether the correction deepens or buyers regain control. U.S.-Iranian negotiations will remain the main driver of short-term movement.