The probability jump for Hormuz is a bit aggressive, now at 48%.

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MeNews
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to return to normal by the end of April.
According to ME News on April 18th (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that in the event of "Will shipping through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of April," the probability of the "Yes" option increased from 28.5% to 48.5% on that day, a single-day rise of 20.0 percentage points.
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