Lately I've been paying attention to interest rates again. To put it simply, they don't directly determine whether cryptocurrencies go up or down, but they influence whether people dare to hold their positions and sleep peacefully. When interest rates are high, putting money in "safe places" can also yield returns, so risk appetite shrinks, and those seemingly good narratives on the blockchain are more likely to be seen as "wait and see." So my own approach is pretty straightforward: when interest rates rise and data tightens, I shift my positions from "storytelling" to "survival," and I also hold more cash.

These days, the calendar for staking unlocks and token unlocks is being repeatedly brought up to scare people. Actually, I care more about the structure: who is receiving the unlock, whether they have ongoing incentives to stay in the ecosystem, or if they just sell and leave after unlocking. There is definitely selling pressure anxiety, but often it's not the unlock itself that hits hardest; it's when market sentiment cools down along with macro factors, and everyone wants to reduce their positions at the same time. Anyway, I’ll follow the rhythm for now and not change my plan just because of nervousness.