I have been watching the yen exchange rate recently and found this round of depreciation quite interesting. The USD/JPY has been oscillating between 152 and 160, and the real effective exchange rate has already hit a nearly 53-year low. The reasons behind it are actually quite complex.

The main factors are the persistent interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan: the Bank of Japan can’t raise rates as fast as the Federal Reserve. In addition, Japan’s fiscal expansion, along with instability in the Middle East that pushes up oil prices, are continuously weighing on the yen. However, this has also led many people to ask: can you buy yen? I think it depends on how you buy.

In the short term, the market expects the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 1% in June—this is a key timing point. If rates are raised, the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential would narrow, and the yen could have a chance to rebound. But JPMorgan predicts it could fall to 164 by the end of the year, and Société Générale also believes it could test 160, so in the near term it’s still relatively weak.

As for whether you can buy the yen, the answer depends on your goal. If it’s just for travel or future spending, you can buy in installments and don’t need to rush to buy everything at once. But if you truly want to make money from yen appreciation, you need to wait until Japan’s internal economy shows real improvement, with wages and prices forming a healthy cycle—only then is it possible for the yen to strengthen over the long term. If you buy now, the risk is still quite high, so you need to do your homework.