I just reviewed the behavior of USD/MXN and there are interesting things to analyze to understand the dollar trend in the coming days.

This pair has been quite volatile lately, fluctuating around 19.88 pesos per dollar. What draws attention is that everything moves due to a combination of political and economic factors that go beyond simple figures.

In the United States, political uncertainty has been key. The presidential elections caused significant movements in the markets, especially due to promises of protectionist tariffs that could severely impact Mexico. Meanwhile, in Mexico, the judicial reform pushed by the government sparked debates about institutional stability, which weakened investor confidence.

On the economic side, the numbers are not very encouraging for the peso. The IMF and BBVA Research projected Mexican GDP growth close to 1.0-1.3% for 2025, quite modest compared to the United States. This naturally favors the dollar, as investors seek refuge in safer assets.

Monetary policy also plays a crucial role. Banxico had started interest rate cuts since 2024, which typically weakens the local currency. The Federal Reserve, although also cutting rates, maintained competitive yields in dollars, keeping it strong against the peso.

Looking at technical indicators, the RSI was neutral around 53, suggesting that the pair could oscillate within a range without a clear short-term trend. Bollinger Bands indicated moderate volatility with possible consolidation. However, the dollar trend in the coming days could change depending on what happens with oil prices and monetary policy decisions.

Historically, USD/MXN has been sensitive to external crises. The fall in oil prices in 2014-2015, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical events always caused significant movements. This makes sense because Mexico relies heavily on its crude exports.

The factors that truly move this pair are quite clear: interest rates in both countries, political stability, oil prices, and the trade balance. A stronger dollar makes Mexican imports more expensive and pressures inflation, while benefiting the U.S. sector.

For those looking to trade this, there are several options: direct Forex, CFDs on authorized platforms, currency-focused funds, or derivatives like futures and options. The key is to stay alert to central bank announcements and key economic events, which are the ones that generate the biggest movements.

The reality is that we remain in an environment where global uncertainty keeps pressure on the peso. In the short term, any news about monetary policy or political stability in Mexico could generate volatility. In the long term, economic stability and oil prices will be decisive. For now, the dollar remains strong, but these markets can change quickly.