1. Gold: Tug-of-war between bulls and bears, short-term consolidation

On May 26, international gold prices fluctuated around the U.S.-Iran situation. In the Asian morning session, spot gold opened higher but quickly fell back, breaking below the $4,550 level during the session; overnight, it surged 1.35% to $4,570.5, as expectations of de-escalation in geopolitical tensions provided temporary support for gold prices.

Fundamentally, a sharp decline in oil prices has eased inflation pressures, and market concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes have slightly cooled, which is positive for gold. However, the high-interest-rate environment remains the biggest suppressor of gold prices. The market has fully priced in the Fed’s rate hike expectations for the year, shifting the macro narrative from "rate cut expectations" to "higher and longer-lasting interest rates." Additionally, the trading logic in the gold market has undergone a fundamental shift—from previous geopolitical safe-haven demand to inflation and interest rate expectations, with war uncertainties no longer being the natural support for gold prices.

Technically, gold is currently trading within a broad range of $4,550 to $4,600. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator have formed a death cross and are turning upward, while KDJ and RSI indicators have formed a golden cross, indicating a short-term rebound opportunity. However, the $4,600 round number (also near the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands) remains an important resistance. Key support levels are at $4,550 and $4,500.

In the medium term, major institutions generally hold a "cautious in the short term, optimistic in the medium term" attitude. Citibank is bearish to $4,300 per ounce in the short term but maintains a target of $5,000 in 6-12 months; Goldman Sachs, UBS, Standard Chartered, and other investment banks still expect prices to reach $5,500–$5,600 by the end of the year.

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2. Crude Oil: Decline followed by rebound, geopolitical premium oscillates

The crude oil market today showed intense volatility. Overnight, WTI crude fell below $91 per barrel, dropping over 6.4% intraday, while Brent crude plunged 6.6%. But the situation quickly reversed—according to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. military conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran on the 25th, increasing tensions again, and international oil prices rebounded sharply. As of 9:44 today, WTI was up 1.85% at $91.97, and Brent was up 2.22% at $95.49.

The core pricing narrative has shifted from "Will conflict occur" to "When will traffic resume." Market focus is on key variables such as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of Iran’s frozen assets release. Reports indicate that the main obstacle in negotiations has shifted from nuclear material cooperation to fund unfreezing arrangements, with Iran demanding access to $12 billion of frozen assets in the first phase of the agreement, while the U.S. prefers to tie this to the final deal.

Technically, Brent crude (around $99) remains below the daily Bollinger middle band at approximately $105.53, and MACD remains in a weak zone, indicating that the rebound is more about risk re-pricing after a correction rather than a strong trend breakout.

Fundamentally, global oil supply remains tight, with Gulf region supply losses around 14 million barrels per day. U.S. crude inventories decreased by 7.86M barrels, far exceeding market expectations, with continuous inventory drawdowns providing support for prices. Many institutions believe that although oil prices have sharply retraced geopolitical premiums, the clear supply-demand logic of "supply collapse, demand slowdown, and inventory depletion" will limit further declines, making a significant drop less likely.

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The core variables in both gold and crude oil markets are now dominated by the evolution of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation. In the short term, the pace of the Strait of Hormuz reopening and its impact on global inflation and interest rate expectations will be key factors determining the direction of these assets. If negotiations proceed smoothly, oil prices may continue to be pressured downward, and gold could benefit from the "oil price decline → inflation cooling → rate cut expectations rising" positive cycle; if geopolitical tensions flare up again, oil prices will regain support, but gold’s trading logic has shifted from safe-haven to concerns over inflation driven by high oil prices, making its trend more complex. Both bulls and bears are currently cautious, and the market is waiting for clearer geopolitical signals and data guidance. #Polymarket每日热点