Recently, I’ve read a lot of discussions about gold and found that many people’s understanding of gold price trends still stay at the simple logic of "inflation → buy gold." Actually, it’s much more complex than that.

The fundamental reason for gold’s rise, to put it plainly, is the long-term skepticism towards the US dollar’s credit system. The foreign exchange freeze event in 2022 completely changed the market’s expectations for "sovereign asset safety." Since then, gold has not only been an inflation hedge but also a counterbalance to the risks in the entire financial system.

I’ve noticed a very interesting phenomenon — central banks around the world are frantically buying gold. Last year, they surpassed 1,000 tons, and this year they are still continuing. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years. This is not short-term speculation but a systemic shift in asset allocation. That’s why the key to gold price analysis isn’t about predicting short-term fluctuations but understanding this big trend.

Of course, many factors can temporarily push up gold prices. Trade protectionism brings uncertainty, expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions — these are all powder kegs. Coupled with media hype, retail investors follow the trend and rush in, causing continuous gains. But it’s important to understand that these are just catalysts for volatility, not the foundation of a bull market.

As for whether you can still buy now, my view is — it depends on how you play. If you’re a short-term trader, the fluctuations around US market hours indeed offer many opportunities, but strict stop-losses are essential. If you’re a beginner, start with small amounts, and never chase highs blindly. This asset can have nearly 20% annual volatility, even more than stocks. If you’re a long-term investor, gold is indeed worth considering as a stabilizer in your portfolio, but be prepared for a drawdown of over 20%.

Recent gold price forecasts from analysis institutions are generally bullish, but their predicted ranges vary widely. The consensus is that the average price by 2026 will be between $4,800 and $5,200, with year-end targets of $5,400 to $5,800, and even optimistic scenarios reaching $6,000 to $6,500. Major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are raising their target prices, mainly due to ongoing central bank purchases, expectations of rate cuts, and safe-haven demand.

But it’s important to clarify that institutional forecasts do not guarantee these outcomes. Gold has never risen in a straight line. Last year, due to Fed policy expectation adjustments, it retraced 10-15%, and earlier this year, it fell by 18%. The key is whether you have a systematic way to monitor these changes, rather than blindly following news.

My view is that by 2026, gold is more likely to be "volatile at high levels with an upward bias," rather than rising endlessly without pullbacks. As long as inflation remains sticky, debt pressures persist, and geopolitical tensions continue, central banks won’t stop buying gold. The bear market in gold has limited downside, and the bull market has strong continuation potential. But remember, it’s more important to clarify your own positioning (short-term or long-term) before deciding how to enter, rather than blindly following the crowd.