Recently looked at the situation of the US dollar, and I think the analysis of the dollar's trend in 2025 is quite interesting. The US dollar index has been falling for several days, dropping near the lows since November, and even breaking below the 200-day moving average, which is usually seen as a bearish signal.

The main reason is that US employment data did not meet expectations, and the market is starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times. Once the rate cut expectations emerged, US Treasury yields declined, and the attractiveness of the dollar also decreased. From both technical and macro perspectives, the overall dollar trend analysis points to continued short-term pressure unless some black swan event suddenly occurs.

However, the dollar's historical cycle is quite regular. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, the dollar has experienced eight phases of rise and fall cycles. During the Volcker era, high interest rates drove a rally; after the dot-com bubble burst, it fell again; and during the 2008 financial crisis, it plunged to the bottom. Now, this cycle started in 2022, with the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes pushing the dollar higher, but the side effects of runaway inflation are also becoming apparent.

Looking at various currency pairs, the euro against the dollar may continue to rise, and the British pound is similar. The RMB might still face pressure against the dollar, while the yen could appreciate. The Australian dollar, supported by good economic data, also exerts some pressure on the dollar.

From the perspective of dollar trend analysis, short-term trading strategies like swing trading can be considered, especially when key levels are repeatedly tested. In the long run, if the Federal Reserve truly begins a rate-cutting cycle, the dollar may gradually weaken, and at that point, it might be wise to allocate some assets in non-dollar currencies or commodities to diversify risk. The key is to follow data and policy developments closely and adjust strategies flexibly.