#Polymarket每日热点 📢 Gate Square | Polymarket 5/26 Prediction: Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by the end of May?

Unlikely (Polymarket predicts about a 20-26% chance of "Yes"). 
Summary of the current situation (as of 2026/5/26)

There has been significant progress in US-Iran negotiations, with Trump stating "progress is smooth" and "largely negotiated," focusing on ending recent conflicts, gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz (lifting sanctions, resuming shipping), and possibly a temporary ceasefire/memorandum of understanding framework. 

However, the core parts of the nuclear deal have been delayed:
• Both sides agree to handle the ceasefire and Strait reopening first.
• Iran’s highly enriched uranium, suspension of new enrichment, and commitments never to develop nuclear weapons are postponed to subsequent negotiations in 30-60 days. 
• Iran wants to end the war and lift sanctions first, then discuss nuclear issues; the US (Trump + Netanyahu + Rubio) insists nuclear issues are a red line, requiring substantial commitments first (such as surrendering "nuclear dust," rigorous inspections, etc.). 
With only a few days left in May, the probability of an official announcement of a comprehensive nuclear deal is very low. Currently, it seems more like a "peace framework first, nuclear details later" approach.
Polymarket specific data
• US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?：Yes probability about 21-26%, trading volume has exceeded $2.5M-$3M. Mainstream traders believe the answer is "No." 
• More relaxed by June 30? Probability about 46-47%. 
• Markets related to a permanent peace agreement are more optimistic about the end of the year, but short-term caution remains.

Why is there a feeling of a "stunning reversal"?
• Recently, Trump has been hinting + the Strait reopening is imminent, briefly exciting the market (significant oil price fluctuations).
• But both sides’ statements leave room: Trump says "don’t rush, negotiations are ongoing"; Iran emphasizes that nuclear issues are not the core of the current agreement.
• Historical experience + Israel’s hardline stance also make people skeptical about a quick nuclear compromise.

My view: Achieving a clear nuclear agreement in the short term (by the end of May) is difficult; a peace framework/Strait agreement is more likely to be implemented first, with nuclear issues postponed to June/July. Those interested in Polymarket can focus on the "No" or longer-term June/July markets, trading based on the latest news.