Today’s Market

It's so boring to watch the market move, so today let's talk about the overall trend of recent market conditions...
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1. Recent reasons for the downward trend: After the MSTR earnings report day, since Michael Saylor hinted at possibly selling BTC, the probability of MSTR selling BTC by the end of this year on Poly has jumped from 12% before the earnings report to over 70%.
So from the day after the earnings call, American ETF funds have been shifting from net inflows to net outflows. Basically, they have been continuously net selling until now.
But the good news is, although ETF funds are continuously flowing out, long-term holders on the chain have not sold in large quantities; recent sales have only been short-term profit-taking and stop-loss sales.
So currently, it’s a mild outflow, not a panic situation. Based on on-chain data, we are still in a gentle correction phase, not at the stage of panic selling.
In the short term, the data does not indicate a high risk of a major downward plunge.
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2. Recent months’ institutional research reports have summarized a pattern due to MSTR’s latest STRC snapshot and settlement on the 15th of each month. Usually, before the 14th, there are buyers in the market for STRC. If the STRC price is above 100, MSTR can issue more STRC to raise funds to buy BTC.
So for a period, before the 15th of each month, MSTR has been quite aggressive in buying. After the 15th, they tend to rest and recover until the end of the month or early the next month, then before the 15th of the following month, they prepare for the next round of STRC fundraising and purchases.
Therefore, over the past week or so, MSTR’s buying activity has been relatively calm.
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3. From options data (referencing the previous options data), recent low volatility indicates that the market has not strongly priced in the next move, so this is reflected in the price with small fluctuations this week.
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So, guessing the direction based on the current wave is not very meaningful... just do some intraday trading...
The next move depends on ETF and MSTR... MSTR’s strength in STRC fundraising is expected to last until around the first or second week of next month.
At the same time, whether ETF outflows will intensify or reverse remains to be seen.
On-chain, we need to watch whether long-term holders accelerate their outflows.
Currently, all these are in a mild, interconnected state... so there is no clear direction.