Did Trump suddenly lose his tough nerve?

Market: Bad news—oil prices might really be in for a crash!
What was “old Trump”’s style toward Iran?
“If you don’t comply, I’ll sanction you.”
Now it suddenly becomes:
“We’re having a good dialogue.”
The speed of this tone shift is so fast that even Wall Street is stunned.
More importantly, the U.S. has even shown some softening on the issue of “concentrated uranium remaining in Iran.”
Previously, the demand was “it must be moved away,” but now it’s “so don’t go messing with it for now.”
So global capital instantly starts imagining:
Is the nuclear deal about to be revived?
And what truly excites the market isn’t diplomacy, but oil.
Because once tensions between the U.S. and Iran ease, the risk in the Strait of Hormuz declines, and expectations for global energy supply improve.
Naturally, pressure on oil prices increases.
So the ones most panicked lately aren’t gold, but long positions in crude oil.
After all, over the past few years, geopolitical conflict has been an important engine driving oil prices.
Now that engine suddenly sputters out—who wouldn’t panic?
But the question is:
Before the end of May, is it really possible to reach an agreement?
Optimists think:
Both sides now need results.
The U.S. needs to push down oil prices and rein in inflation;
Iran needs to ease economic pressure.
So there is a chance of a “lightning-fast agreement.”
Pessimists, meanwhile, say:
The truly complex parts can’t really be negotiated.
Right now, it feels more like political posturing.
And the most unreal thing about the market is right here—
Even if nothing gets signed in the end,
as long as there’s “a possibility it could be signed,”
funds rush in early.
So lately, there’s been a funny scene in the market:
The people actually negotiating haven’t finished yet,
but traders have already booked profits and exited.
That’s the capital market.
Reality hasn’t happened yet—
but the candlestick charts are already giving a preview.