Short-term turnover rate drops to the lowest in 15 years; the last time this signal appeared was in November 2022.

The on-chain analyst Murphy tracks the "short-term capital activity weight" indicator, which has only appeared at the bottom of a bear market before.
In May 2026, it reached an extremely low level again. What does this mean?
It’s not pre-accumulation for a bull run, but an increased probability of a bottom or sub-bottom.
Trading volume is also shrinking.
BTC spot trading volume has plummeted 81% since October last year, returning to 2023 bear market levels.
Selling pressure is easing, but buyers haven't returned.
The market is like a dead water pool; ETF outflows have exceeded $2 billion for two consecutive weeks, and institutions are withdrawing.
The risk is: low turnover may also mean a liquidity trap.
Without new funds entering, any rebound could be distorted by leverage and short covering.
Wintermute points out that key support for BTC is at $75,000–$76k, and losing this level could lead to a retest of $70k.
Bottom signals do not mean an immediate reversal.
Historically, bottom areas can last for weeks or even months.
Diversify positions and wait for macro signals to resonate—more practical than guessing the bottom.
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