$77,000 Bitcoin, are you going to buy the dip?

ETF has been outflowing 15 billion for 6 consecutive days, CPI soared to 3.8%, hitting a one-year high, price dropped from 120k to 77,000— but just now, Nasdaq options approved, geopolitical easing caused oil prices to plummet 6%, big players quietly placing orders around 75,000.

First look at the surface: down 39%, sentiment dispersed.

Fallen from ATH of $126,198, a full 40% evaporation. Last weekend’s sell-off, once broke through 75,000. Slight rebound of 0.5% in 24 hours to around 77,000, volume sluggish, sentiment shifted from “eternal bull market” to “sell at break-even.” 78,000 has become a ceiling, all three attempts rejected.

First thing: ETF funds are rushing out.

Over the past 6 trading days, outflows totaled between $120k and $1.55 billion. BlackRock’s daily IBIT outflows hit record highs, institutions shifting from “buy only” to “sell while buying.” In April, inflows reached $2.4 billion, but May saw a complete reversal.

Second thing: CPI exploded, the Fed dares not cut rates.

US April CPI YoY at 3.8%, core CPI rebounded, gasoline prices up 28.4% year over year. Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, inflation uncontainable, the Fed’s current rate is 3.5-3.75%, the expectation of rate cuts this year is basically shattered. High rates + high inflation = risk assets being double-killed. BTC? It’s not gold, in macro terms it’s a high-beta stock.

Third thing: a technical signal worth warning about.

78,000 rejected three times, a classic “resistance confirmation.” RSI below 45, MACD death cross, moving averages bullish arrangement broken—short-term trend has turned bearish.

But note: below 75,000, on-chain data shows big players starting to place buy orders, 70k-72,000 is the top of the last bull market, now a strong support zone.

One side:

- ETF outflows continue, institutions reducing positions

- CPI at 3.8%, hawkish Fed

- 78,000 rejected three times, technical death cross

- Dropped from 120k, sentiment at a low point

The other side:

- Nasdaq’s Bitcoin options approved, more compliant tools available

- Geopolitical easing, oil prices down 6%, risk assets short-term relief

- Post-halving supply tightening continues, long-term narrative unchanged

- 70,000-72,000 is a historical strong support, big players starting to place orders

Key level 77,000, below is the previous low of 75,000.

- Resistance above: 78,000 → 79,500 → 80,000-81,800 (breakthrough needed to turn bullish)

- Support below: 75,000 → 74,300 → 72,000-70,000 (final defense for bulls)

Short-term traders:

Wait for a small position near 75,000 to go long, stop-loss at 73,000, target 78,000-80,000. Or short above 78,000 with a stop at 80,000, target 74,000.

Swing traders:

Wait until price reaches 70,000-72,000 to build positions gradually, stop-loss at 68,000. Or wait for daily close above 80,000 to chase.

Long-term believers:

Start DCA below 75,000, add every $2,000 drop, hold until the next bull market. But remember—don’t go all-in, keep enough cash. The real bottom might still be ahead, October-December is the cycle’s bottoming window.

Bitcoin now is like 2022—

From 69,000 down to 16,000, everyone said “Bitcoin is dead.” And what happened? #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U #美军打击伊朗 $BTC $ETH $SOL