Initial market bias is usually: BTC drops first when there are Israel–Iran attacks, because investors move to safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold. Major geopolitical conflicts often trigger “risk-off” behavior in crypto.

But after the panic sell-off eases, Bitcoin sometimes rebounds quickly if the market sees that:

the war is not spreading,

central banks remain loose,

or investors view BTC as an alternative hedge.

So the general pattern is:

1. Breaking news hits → short-term BTC dump.

2. If escalation is limited → BTC recovery.

3. If the war gets bigger + oil rises sharply → BTC can continue to fall because the market avoids risk.

Now the market is highly sensitive to:

Iran’s response,

oil prices,

conditions in the Strait of Hormuz,

and crypto leverage liquidations.